Prediction Markets: SUSPICIOUS Election Bets Flood In

One prediction market had Spencer Pratt at 78% to make the November runoff on the eve of the June Los Angeles primary. He finished third. The race drew more than $47 million in trades, busier than a one-armed paperhanger. Kalshi's own case study says a $1.25 million trade on May 20 pushed Pratt's contract from 29 cents to 45, then it slid back within nine seconds. Nobody on my place has ever paid that much for nine seconds of anything. ACDC found 38 of 167 congressional markets saw spikes of 30 cents or more. Semafor says Kalshi and Polymarket gave Flávio Bolsonaro a 4-in-5 chance in Brazil. He lost. A fella who misses that often gets asked to stop buying the coffee.